1. I am predicting who I think will be nominated, not who should be nominated. Big difference. These awards can get surprisingly political, so if your favorite movie or performance isn't on my list, it's not to say that it isn't deserving of an award. I'm just saying it probably won't get nominated by the Academy.
2. I haven't seen every movie released this year. Wow, can you believe it? Granted, almost every movie released this year won't be nominated (that may come as a shock to all of The Love Guru fans out there), but there's also a chance that I haven't seen a movie that gets nominated.
3. The nominees are listed alphabetically by last name. As much as I like to rank things, I'll save that for my winner predictions.
4. Here's how I'll format this note. For each category, I will list my predictions. Then I'll give a bit of analysis to explain my predictions a little bit more thoroughly. Finally, I will offer my "Fingers Crossed" selection. This will be someone that I doubt will get nominated, but I secretly hope does get nominated.
Sound good? Here we go. I'll work up to the big categories.
Best Supporting Actress
Amy Adams, Doubt
Penelope Cruz, Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Viola Davis, Doubt
Marisa Tomei, The Wrestler
Kate Winslet, The Reader
Well, I think this category is one of the bigger wild card categories. Granted, I didn't take any risks with my list, but I wouldn't be surprised if there is a shocking nomination come January 22nd. However, I think this category is more famous for surprising winners (Tilda Swinton, Marcia Gay Harden, etc). There is a bit of internet chatter saying that Kate Winslet could get nominated for The Reader in the lead category. Since nomination rules are different for the Oscars, this is a definite possibility. However, I really think that most members will cast their ballot with Winslet in the supporting category for The Reader. She's long overdue for an Oscar, and I think it'll be easier for most voters to place her here for The Reader and in the lead category for Revolutionary Road. Since an actress can only be nominated in each category once, I don't think many voters will want to debate Revolutionary Road vs. The Reader for lead actress.
I feel like Amy Adams is the one with the highest potential for a snub, which is a shame because I thought she gave the best performance in Doubt. A few weeks ago, Marisa Tomei would have been the long shot, but she seems to be gaining momentum. Viola Davis and Penelope Cruz have been the front runners for a long time, so I think they're the safest bets for a nomination next Thursday.
"Fingers Crossed." My fingers are crossed for Rosemarie DeWitt in Rachel Getting Married. I think she gave an exceptional and believable performance as the burdened sister in that film.
Best Supporting Actor
Josh Brolin, Milk
Robert Downey Jr., Tropic Thunder
Philip Seymour Hoffman, Doubt
Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight
Dev Patel, Slumdog Millionaire
Supporting Actor/Actress is notorious for nominating younger actors. I think that will help Dev Patel slip into the running. The widespread support for Slumdog Millionaire doesn't hurt either. I really have a suspicion that Ralph Fiennes could slip into the mix somewhere. I think he could take Robert Downey Jr.'s spot or Patel's spot. However, Robert Downey Jr. has been having an amazing year so I suspect the Academy will honor him with a nomination. Hoffman, Ledger, and Brolin seem like safe bets, so it's the remaining two spots that are in contention right now.
"Fingers Crossed." I really would love to see James Franco nominated here. I think he gave a beautiful, compassionate performance in Milk and it's a shame that understated performances seem to go unrecognized (the reason I'm afraid Amy Adams will get snubbed).
Best Actress
Anne Hathaway, Rachel Getting Married
Sally Hawkins, Happy-Go-Lucky
Meryl Streep, Doubt
Kristin Scott Thomas, I've Loved You So Long
Kate Winslet, Revolutionary Road
Well, I'm betting against the big guns here. Angelina Jolie could very well be nominated for her role in The Changeling, but I think the odds are stacked against her. It's not a very critically acclaimed film, and I think the Academy's love for Clint Eastwood will be bestowed upon Gran Torino instead of The Changeling. I'm also betting against Cate Blanchett, who received a nomination for the sequel to Elizabeth last year (what the fuck, right?). You would think that Benjamin Button would be able to carry her here. Instead, I'm going with Sally Hawkins and Kristin Scott Thomas. I just have a feeling, based on the weighted voting system the Academy uses, that they'll receive higher preferential rankings from voters. Melissa Leo could also sneak in, but I think her film is almost too small. Hathaway, Streep, and Winslet are pretty secure in their nominations here.
"Fingers Crossed." Well, I actually feel pretty good about the five ladies I have selected. I haven't seen the movie Wendy and Lucy, but I think that once I do I'll be rooting for Michelle Williams. Unfortunately, I won't get to see that movie until after the nominations are announced.
Best Actor
Clint Eastwood, Gran Torino
Frank Langella, Frost/Nixon
Sean Penn, Milk
Brad Pitt, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler
I had a lot of trouble with the final slot in this category. Rourke, Langella, and Penn are surefire bets here. I also had a really easy time putting Eastwood's name here. He's slipped in before (Million Dollar Baby) and I think his movie is picking up steam at just the right time. The conflict was between Brad Pitt, Leonardo DiCaprio, and Richard Jenkins for the final spot. Jenkins, who is a beloved veteran, was apparently great in The Visitor. However, I feel like like this category is already a bit on the elderly side since Penn is a previous winner, Langella and Eastwood are "beloved veterans," and Rourke is having a huge comeback. So, I ruled out Jenkins. DiCaprio is younger than Pitt, but I think that the Academy is going to show a bit more love to Benjamin Button. That means history will probably repeat itself. Kate and Leo have starred in two movies together, and both times Kate gets nommed and Leo gets snubbed. I could be wrong, but something about this prediction feels so right.
"Fingers Crossed." Again, I feel like the best performances of the year are on this list. It would be fun if Robert Downey Jr. snuck in for Iron Man, but I don't see that happening.
Best Picture
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Frost/Nixon
Milk
Slumdog Millionaire
Honestly, I would be very surprised if this line-up gets disturbed. All five of these films were nominated by the PGA and the DGA, which are the strongest precursors for this category. People are saying that The Dark Knight is a longshot here, but I disagree. I actually could see Frost/Nixon or Milk getting snubbed before The Dark Knight. It was just too huge to ignore. That's what she said.
Also, I was going to do Best Director as a category, but it's about as predictable as the Best Picture category. Where's the fun in that? The acting categories are where the action is this year.
"Fingers Crossed." I would die a happy man if Wall-E snuck into the final five. That movie was glorious, but probably won't get nominated. The weighted voting system makes it an actual possibility, but I think it's not going to happen.
What are your thoughts? Am I stupid? Do you agree? I'd love to know!
-XOXO, C
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